5 Bears Takes: Another mind-blowing loss has the season entirely off the rails

The Chicago Bears’ season-high losing streak has hit six games in front of a national audience on Thanksgiving. Despite being dominated in the first half, they made a valiant effort to complete the comeback but once again came up short. Could this be it for head coach Matt Eberflus?

Just six games ago, the Chicago Bears were coming out of their bye week riding high at (4-2). Despite a disappointing first three quarters against a quality Washington Commanders team on the road, Chicago appeared to complete the improbable comeback to take a 15-12 lead with 19 seconds remaining in the game. We all know how things came crashing down in Week 8 for the Bears. We didn’t realize then that one single play would be the downfall of their entire season.

Six weeks later, Chicago finds themselves in the throws of a six-game losing streak extended on Thanksgiving day against the NFL’s best Detroit Lions. Despite being severely outplayed in the first half, the offense figured out how to score points, and the defense made a few key stops. In a game that once felt destined for a blowout, it appeared to be trending toward a Bears win. At worst, it was a 23-23 tie and a game destined for overtime. Instead, they went backward from the Detroit 25 and wasted 32 seconds for one last play with a timeout in hand.

It was a horrendous sequence and completely unavoidable.

So, what now? Where does this team go from here with five games left? They’ll enjoy a mini-bye before heading to Santa Clara to face a struggling San Francisco 49ers team in Week 14. If the organization had any pride, they’d make that trip without head coach Matt Eberflus. The next few days will be exciting, but until proven different, fans should expect the status quo for the season’s final five weeks. Let’s dive into their disastrous loss and what is next in Week 13’s Bears Thoughts.

1. Following Another Improbable Path To Defeat, It’s Time To Break Tradition and Fire Matt Eberflus This Weekend.

Win probabilities be damned, any Eberflus-led squad always seems to find a way to lose games they should win. That’s not to say that Thursday’s final drive should have guaranteed them a win, but at worst, they should have been able to kick the game-tying field goal and get the game into overtime. After all, they had all the momentum in the second half.

As we’ve learned over the last three years, wins are hard to come by. This is not just true in the NFL; they seem more difficult for the Bears’ head coach. Have all 35 losses been his fault? Absolutely not. Despite an optimistic start in 2022, they didn’t have a good team. Most of their 14 losses in Year 1 of this regime were understandable. Last year, they blew three four-quarter leads with win probabilities over 90%. Those losses were unforgivable. Despite the franchise’s best efforts to convince the fan base that the team was progressing in Year 2 of Eberflus, many fans saw this type of scenario coming when they chose to retain him for a third year.

Eberflus’ teams have long been known as “bumslayers.” Outside of the New England Patriots in Week 10, they’ve rarely struggled with bad teams. That’s why last year’s (5-3) finish down the stretch felt like an empty endeavor. Only one of their five wins came against a winning team (the Detroit Lions).

Since 1942, the Bears are 101-25-2 when they didn’t turn the ball over on offense and forced at least one takeaway defensively. Four of those losses have come this November. Thanks to The Athletic’s Kevin Fishbain for yet another “fun fact” that turns out not so fun.

Eberflus is now (2-13) against the NFC North. According to the AP, there have been 221 coaches that have had 21 (or more) career games decided by seven points or loss. Eberflus’ (5-17) record ranks dead last in the league’s history. The third-year coach is two losses away from tying John Fox for the second-worst win percentage in franchise history. At this point, his avoiding that finish feels impossible.

It’s over.

That’s all there is left to say. It’s been over. It was over when Week 18 concluded back in January. Yet, the franchise, who can’t seem to get things right, decided to roll the dice on one of the league’s worst head coaches for another season. They’ve been rewarded with a six-game losing streak. Multiple players are calling him out in post-game interviews, and a fan base has learned to laugh at the sheer incompetence that this franchise continues to show in its decision-making.

Sure, there’s a strong chance that we’ll all wake up next Monday morning, and Eberflus will still be the team’s head coach. There’s not much upside in firing a head coach mid-season in what has turned into a lost endeavor. Even so, there’s plenty of reason for ownership to finally appease the fans. Vowing to be better has been brushed aside. We all know where this is headed, and giving the fans a five-week head start is the least they can do. At this point, firing their incompetent head coach is the least they can do for a locker room that has continued to fight for itself.

2. I’ve Seen Everything I Need To Know That Caleb Williams Will Be Just Fine.

Most rookie quarterbacks will experience a rollercoaster in the first NFL season. Williams’s experience has been no different, but with plenty of help from the organization that drafted him, It’s a tale as old as time. The Bears draft a first-round quarterback with a lame-duck head coach. Things are a disaster in-season, and they fire the head coach at the end of the year and set off on a head coaching search. If history was any indicator, it was a fair expectation moving into the season. It was also fair to wonder whether or not Williams would be able to overcome the dysfunction that the franchise has long been known for.

Through 12 games, not only has he experienced a high level of dysfunction, but he has found his own ways to overcome them. The hiring of Shane Waldron was a disaster. The offense struggled throughout training camp, and outside of a three-game stretch against a trio of the league’s worst defenses, they looked like a Bottom 3 unit under the former Seattle offensive coordinator. After nine games (and a three-point performance against the lowly New England Patriots), the Bears were forced to pull the plug on Waldron and turn to passing game coordinator Thomas Brown. Remember, Brown was one of nine candidates to interview for the job in January, but he was passed over for Waldron.

Eberflus informed the media that finding a way to hire Brown onto his staff was his own doing and that he “heavily recruited” him throughout the process. Never mind that Eberflus made the wrong hire a second time in three off-seasons. Credit where credit is due, though. The move was needed, and having Brown in their back pocket has proved invaluable over his first three games as the play-caller.

Back to Williams, his relationship with the former Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator has been forced to grow based on “blind trust.” According to both men, they had very few conversations before Waldron was fired, which, in itself, is a big red flag. The passing game coordinator— In charge of designing the passing game— Had little to no contact with the team’s starting quarterback. What? Dysfunction at its finest, again.

Either way, Williams and Brown have found a way to make it work. The pairing in the first three games has breathed new life into this offense. The rookie quarterback, coming off the worst three-game stretch of his young career, has 827 passing yards, 142 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. More importantly, he has a 64% completion percentage, with his receivers routinely dropping three-plus passes per game. His confidence is clearly growing, showing in the form of ball placement and trusting his rocket-arm.

All things considered, Williams has done an outstanding job of weathering the storm and coming out of the other side as one of the league’s most promising young talents. Obviously, you’d like to see his deep passing game improve. His accuracy, while improved, needs work. Making some of the easy throws will make his life much easier. As will his ability to avoid back-breaking sacks while trying to do far too much in the pocket.

With five games left in the disappointing 2024 regular season, I feel more than comfortable believing that Caleb Williams will become one of the league’s top quarterbacks. Year 2 is always big for young quarterbacks, and with the right hire, there’s no reason why he can’t take a step into stardom by this time next season. The talent has always been there. The mental aspect will always be the question. Through 12 games, he’s proven to ride the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. Coming out of the other side of this with every franchise rookie record is just the consolation prize for what should be a promising career for a team that has been starved of top-tier quarterback production for longer than most current fans have been alive.

3. Thursday’s Game Was Another Reason For Proof That The Bears Aren’t Very Far Away With The Right Coach.

The old adage says, “You are what your record says you are.” In the most literal sense, that is true. For the 2024 Chicago Bears, I refuse to believe that is the case. Their inability to close out games late or finish comebacks is a coaching issue. Sure, the players will always share some blame, but good coaches usually find a way to get the best out of their roster. Eberflus and his staff have done the exact opposite of that.

Need more proof? Look at Eberflus’ record in one-score games. Historically bad. Coming into Thursday’s game, they ranked 10th most in penalties with 78. Add another eight to their total in Week 13, and they are all but guaranteed to climb the list. If that isn’t convincing enough, how about this: The Bears are the first since 1955 to have a position point differential and have four wins. When combining their roster with some of these historical anomalies, it seems clear that Chicago is playing well below its talent level. Again, that points back to a poorly coached team.

Now, this isn’t to say that they don’t have holes. They absolutely do. They are weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They need more speed on offense. They need to cut defense costs while getting better. These are not issues that can be fully settled in one offseason, but with the right approach, they could be vastly improved in those areas in 2025.

Most importantly, they need to hire the right head coach. If they figure that out, he’ll employ a quality coaching staff, and then maybe we’ll see a Chargers-like turnaround. It’s not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, I’d argue that this team is a lot closer to being good than bad. They’ll have their work cut out for them this offseason. Assuming Poles stays in place as the head talent evaluator, he must dedicate this offseason to both sides of the line. If they can find a way to be league-average (or better) in those departments, there’s no reason why they can’t be in the playoff mix next year.

The good news is that the Bears will have arguably the most attractive opening out of any team. Whether that’s seven jobs or 10, it won’t matter. The most important factor is finding a way to get the next hire right. Remember: Rarely will the sexy first-time head coaching candidate be the best hire of the cycle. Getting the hire right, which will revolve around Williams, is objective No. 1 of another crucial offseason ahead.

4. Despite Accounting For Just Short Of $117 Million Of The Team’s Cap Space, The Defense Is Not Good Enough.

Sensing a trend here? That’s yet another direct reflection of their head coach (who is also the defensive playcaller). When general manager Ryan Poles justified keeping Eberflus in January, he pointed to the defensive turnaround and his overall leadership with that unit once he took over play-calling for Alan Williams. After all, the organization insisted that Eberflus retained the defensive play-calling duties when hiring a new defensive coordinator. This was all a part of the package when they defined clear expectations for their head coach returning in Year 3.

After a quality start to the season, things started going downhill after the Hail Mary in Washington. From Week eight to now, their defense has ranked in the bottom third in multiple critical statistical categories. Their run of holding teams to 21 points or less ended in Arizona and has been eclipsed thrice in five games.

The ability to get after the quarterback has also greatly diminished during that stretch. Since losing Andrew Billings, their run defense has gone from average to flat-out bad. They aren’t forcing takeaways with the same frequency; most turnovers have been fumbles. Their once highly regarded secondary has been getting beat with regularity. Second-year cornerback Tyrique Stevenson has hit a brick wall in his development and has not been the same player since his role in the Hail Mary.

Despite having their head coach leading the unit, There’s not much to “love” about this defense. Now, don’t get me wrong. There’s plenty of talent on the depth chart. You could even argue that there’s plenty of depth to withstand specific injuries. Even so, this is not the same unit as earlier in the season. With the offense getting back on track, the defense is taking a step back, and it’s a significant contributing factor to why they cannot break this losing streak. There are more than enough solid players, but considering the amount of money invested in this group, there aren’t enough pure playmakers, and that’s a big issue.

5. I Can’t Help But Think That Thursday’s Offensive Performance Had To Catch The Eye Of Lions Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson.

As noted above, the Lions’ offense ran and passed all over the Bears’ defense in the first half of Thursday afternoon’s game. They totaled over 250 yards but had to settle for three field goals before finally getting into the end zone on the first drive of the second half to extend the lead back to 16 points. Overall, the Lions dominated the Bears’ defense for most of the day. Their aggression and creativity were on full display, and that’s all thanks to their offensive coordinator. The same guy will again be one of the league’s most sought-after head coaching candidates in January.

For the first time in a head-to-head matchup, Johnson got his first look at “what could be” when he weighed his options of becoming a first-time head coach. Don’t get me wrong; the Bears have plenty of pieces to their core that should attract most head coaching candidates. Williams’ big performance against a defense that had not allowed more than one passing touchdown in a game this season will stick out in Johnson’s mind more than most games.

With DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet under contract for the next three-plus seasons, the core of pass catchers is already there. Darnell Wright should be a building block on the offensive line. There are also plenty of pieces on defense that will perform well regardless of who they have as defensive coordinator in 2025.

The big draw, however, will be the team’s rookie quarterback. Not only was Williams the No. 1 overall pick back in April, but he has proven that the ups and downs of an NFL season will not define his career. His progress could be more linear, but rarely is that with rookie quarterbacks. Instead, he’s playing the best football of his young NFL career with his second offensive coordinator of the season. Despite looking like a great situation on paper heading into the season, Williams has been the league’s most sacked quarterback, and the overall offensive product has resembled a nightmare rollercoaster.

Instead of shelling up and following the same path as Jay Cutler, Mitchell Trubisky, or Justin Fields, the former USC product has risen above. All those concerns about how he would handle losing at the NFL level have disappeared. Is he a good teammate and a quality leader? Check. The arm talent, physical tools, and advanced mental preparation? Check.

It’s all out there for this Bears franchise, and Johnson no doubt took notice. That doesn’t guarantee that he will be the team’s head coach when that decision is made early next year, but this type of game sure doesn’t hurt. Johnson is going to continue to be selective, as he should be. Most head coaches don’t get second chances, and he would be foolish to jump on any opportunity that doesn’t set him up for success out of the gate.

Only time will tell how the Bears’ head coaching search will ultimately pan out, but for Bears fans, it’s easy to fantasize about a world in which Williams is a top-five quarterback and Johnson is leading this team to sustained success.